Jan. 18, 2020 Source： 中国发展网
2019 is the first year of global 5G. More than 55 telecom operators have provided 5G services with speeds that are 6-8 times faster than 4G for about 10 million customers. The over 126,000 base stations opened by China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom have laid a solid foundation for China's 5G-led development.
Behind 5G is the standard competition, and even the competition between countries; the issuance of a commercial license is the starting gun for China's accelerated development of 5G. The "White Paper on 5G Economic and Social Impact" released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology predicts that from 2020, 5G will be expected to drive 484 billion yuan in direct economic output and 1.2 trillion yuan in indirect economic output; by 2025, 5G Direct economic output is 3.3 trillion yuan, and indirect economic output reaches 6.3 trillion yuan. By 2030, 5G is expected to drive direct economic output of 6.3 trillion yuan, and indirect economic output will reach 10.6 trillion yuan. In terms of employment opportunities, 5G commercial use is expected to directly contribute 500,000, 3.5 million and 8 million employment opportunities in 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively.
Looking back at 2019 and looking forward to 2020, for the 5G market next year, the China Academy of Industrial Development believes that there will be the following six phenomena:
Prediction 1: 5G tariffs are further optimized and high thresholds become a thing of the past
The average monthly expenditure of Chinese mobile communication customers in 2019 is 47.1 yuan, while the 5G package tariff starts at 128 yuan, and a nearly three times premium allows 5G entry tariffs to have greater room for optimization in 2020.
For operators, only by rapidly expanding the scale of 5G customers can the network scale effect be brought into full play, further driving the price of network equipment and mobile phones closer to the 4G level, thereby forming "more customers, more base stations, lower tariffs, and slightly higher revenues. Increase "virtuous circle.
Looking forward to 2020, 5G will no longer be a "toy" for a few people. The 60 yuan premium of about 20% over 4G year-on-year is likely to become a new entry-level "low" degree, and 5G packages below 100 yuan are expected to become the public The mainstream choice of customers, the average monthly mobile data usage will quickly move from the current 7.56 GB to 20 GB.
Prediction 2: 5G network services are going from the killing of three nations to the battle of four nations, consumers are choosing more.
In 2019, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a total of four 5G licenses. In addition to the three major operators, China Radio and Television debuted. However, how the radio and television's 60MHz bandwidth on the 700MHz gold spectrum matches the huge network investment of 5G has attracted much attention from the industry, and the arrangement of China Telecom and China Unicom sharing 5G base stations has made the market worry about insufficient competition.
At the end of 2019, the State Grid with annual revenue of more than 2 trillion reported information on the establishment of a 5G joint venture with Radio and Television. The construction plan of 113,100 base stations made the emergence of a fourth 5G operator almost inexorable. With ample funds from the State Grid, huge pipe network resources, and the rich content and sales channels of radio and television, the "second" China Mobile is ready.
More 5G network services mean greater supply, and Chinese consumers will benefit from full market competition to become the biggest winners, better coverage and lower tariffs. In 2020, China's market services and business innovation will definitely be Global 5G development provides best practices.
Prediction 3: 5G network coverage is transforming from ubiquitous to precise. On-demand coverage is expected to become the first principle
There are two sides to a coin. The high performance of 5G also means high energy consumption and high cost.
At present, the energy consumption of 5G base stations is about 3.5 times that of 4G, and the procurement cost is about 3 times that of 4G, which is not environmentally friendly or economical. Building a ubiquitous 5G network with more than 5 million base stations like a 4G network will be difficult to achieve in China for a long time. 4G and 5G networks will coexist for a long time and on a large scale. 4G will change lives and 5G will change society together.
Specific areas and industries that require high-speed data, large bandwidth, low latency, high reliability, and massive equipment access, such as the central business district, factories, ports, mining areas, education, medical care, logistics, entertainment, etc., will take the lead to become In the 5G commercial field, technology, business and business models effectively coexist.
The requirements for bandwidth, delay, and security are not high, especially in regions and industries that are highly cost-sensitive, and will continue to provide ubiquitous network signal coverage services from 4G for a longer period of time. On-demand coverage will become The key to 5G network construction.
Prediction 4: 5G mobile phones will promote 5G from high-end to low-end as the new standard for mobile phones
As of December 2019, 62 5G mobile phones have been released worldwide, and more than 29 have been listed, which is far better than the performance of 4G commercial during the same period. The lowest price in 1999 reflects the maturity of the ecosystem from 5G chips to complete machines. And grow.
Looking forward to 5G straight overtaking, Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, etc. launch new high-end mobile phones with a premium of not more than 20% compared with the same period of last year. OnePlus has launched the world ’s first mobile phone that supports the 600MHz spectrum in cooperation with T-Mobile in the United States. 5G mobile phones add confidence to the market. Apple is guided by the belief of the best customer experience, and immerses itself in optimizing terminal performance and adapting terminal and network interoperability.
In 2020, 5G functions will become standard for all new mid- to high-end smartphones. The new iPhone will continue to write the legendary story of the mobile phone king since 2007. Folding screens, flexible screens and cost-effectiveness will become the killer of the Android camp. The huge battle for the 5G replacement market will intensify.
Prediction 5: 5G terminals are rapidly diversifying and new forms of consumer applications emerge
5G's large bandwidth, low latency and massive access open the door to the future of terminal diversification. 2019 will be the last year for smartphones to occupy the crown of the terminal.
As of December 2019, 137 5G terminals have been released worldwide, more than twice the number of 5G mobile phones released during the same period.
There are 13 hotspots, 62 CPEs, 34 modules, 7 routers, 3 robots, 3 TVs, 2 plug-in data cards, 3 tablet computers, 2 drones, 2 Head-mounted display, 2 laptops, 1 switch, 2 USB data cards and a vending machine.
Entering 2020, there will be more appliances, including consumer devices and productivity devices with embedded 5G functions, providing real-time online smart connection services for individual customers and government and enterprise customers. In the near future, we will no longer count the number of 5G terminals. There is only one reason, which is too many to count.
Prediction 6: The growing issue of 5G information security and fairness has become an important issue in society
A 5G industrial module for 999 yuan in 2019 has been launched. Entering 2020, big data related to 5G will grow at an exponential rate. With the rapid development of the mobile Internet and the Internet of Things, mass data is being perceived, transmitted, collected and analyzed has become the new normal of social life.
The security of data bears the brunt. "When we haven't figured out how to protect the herd, should we keep all the sheep in one cage?" What's more unavoidable is the issue of fairness. 5G changes society means The "digital divide" has become a new "data divide." How much data, how much data, and how much data is used by third parties as production materials in the network for each person and country?
How to avoid the dead sheep and make up for it is a realistic issue that cannot be avoided in front of all regulators, industry participants and consumers.
In 2020, social events related to information security and fairness will increase significantly, and more local laws and regulations from the Internet Information Office, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the provinces will continue to be promulgated.
The greatest value of 5G is to promote the digital transformation of society and become the most ubiquitous and trusted social infrastructure. The increasingly standardized, affordable artificial intelligence and blockchain-based security authentication technology will further promote the digital transformation and upgrade of society. In 2020, scientific planning, precision construction, and sustainable operation of 5G networks will no doubt become a major event for the whole society.
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